Anomalies in your business are the heart of our business.
Serendipity .... Paradigm Shifts .... Black Swans!
No matter the nature of the anomaly, the seeing swans ground-breaking approach to knowledge management provides customers with early insight into unexpected problems and unexplored opportunities in their business.
Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line.
~ Benoit Mandelbrot”
~ Benoit Mandelbrot”
In daily life we are familiar with orderly and dis-orderly behaviours. We can think of queues of people waiting at airports and stations versus scenes of rioting; or a choir singing an operatic chorus compared to the raucous screams of a mob. But what about behaviours in which order and dis-order exist together such as spectators at a sports event or participants in the Comrades Marathon. Examples of “organized chaos” are not only limited to human society. Think of flocks of birds, schools of fish, water flowing in a river or even our weather.
In seeing swans, we focus on seeking out the chaotic elements of otherwise orderly groups. No matter the size of the groups or the nature of its building blocks, we have tools and methods that allow us to identify aspects of instability. We have applied our approach to crowds, social networks, traffic and financial data. We integrate data from a range of sources – sensors, video, static images and physical measurements as well as databases. Applying our proprietary methods, we are able to isolate exceptional elements in a large, mixed group.
Once these elements are identified, information about their characteristics is fed back into the information about the system as a whole to improve understanding and anticipate unexpected changes. “Black Swans” can be a source of trouble if unprepared; but a wonderful opportunity when identified in advance.
The seeing swans analytical approach is based on the use of Bayesian logic. Why use Bayesian logic? Bayesian methods are based on sound fundamental principles and are becoming increasingly accepted and applied. Some of the abroad arguments supporting the use of a Bayesian approach are that it is
- Very flexible
- Produces clear and actionable outcomes
- Makes use of all available information.